Who We Are

The Center for Economic Research & Forecasting (CERF), seeks to be a solutions-oriented organization, providing world-class economic forecast publications, analyzing the effects of economic policies, and working with diverse stakeholders to address the major economic challenges of the day.

When it comes to forecasting, our goal has always been to provide objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state of the art forecasting tools reveal. In this effort, we see our role as one of calling balls and strikes, rather than advocating for a preferred outcome. We also see forecasting as an art and not as a science. Rather than being married to a particular model, we employ a range of forecasting tools and always try to reconcile the output of various models with what we understand from macroeconomic theory. We don’t just make predictions, we provide the thinking behind our forecasts, and we try not to be overly influenced by the latest data point.

Nationally Recognized

CERF is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Outlook and Economic Policy surveys, and the Fannie May (formerly Case-Shiller) Home Price Expectations Survey. In 2016, NABE awarded CERF second place in its annual Outlook Award competition. CERF’s quarterly U.S. GDP forecast was the second most accurate among more than 80 professional forecasts included in the survey. CERF was also the recipient of 2019, 2020 and 2021 Crystal Ball Awards for the Fannie May Home Price Expectations Survey. CERF’s U.S. home price forecast received multiple top-3 rankings among more than 100 professional forecasts.

Regional Experts

CERF is unmatched in its expertise regarding the Ventura County and San Fernando Valley regional economies. In addition to producing in-depth economic forecast publications, we are involved at the policy level in a number of initiatives which address pressing regional economic challenges.