Most data releases are of seasonally adjusted data, and that is a problem. No one knows what the exact seasonal patterns in the economy are. We estimate them. The new jobs data release is an example of the problem. Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the July employment situation report shows 247 thousand seasonally-… Read more

I always figured that the administration would take credit for any eventual economic recovery, but I also figured that they would wait for the recovery. Wrong. Cristina Romer, perhaps buoyed by yesterday’s GDP release and today’s job data, says that the stimulus is working.

The Bureau of Economic Activity’s recent release of their initial estimate of the United States second quarter GDP growth implied that the U.S. economy had improved dramatically.  Economic growth was still negative, but it had improved from -6.4 in the 1st quarter to -1.0 percent in the 2nd quarter.  This growth rate is close enough… Read more