The United States GDP data release this morning was dismal. The overall conclusions from this report are that: • Economic growth was weaker than we thought during 2007 to 2010 • Inflation was higher than we thought during 2007 to 2010 • Consumption spending was weaker than we thought during 2007 to 2010 • Output… Read more

Until today, we’ve been confident that we could avoid a double-dip recession.  Too be sure, we’ve acknowledged that risks abound, particularly in the Middle East and in the Eurozone.  However, the recovery seemed to be proceeding about as we had expected, slowly, certainly slower than most forecasts. We believed that the United States economy, absent… Read more

The BLS’s Employment Situation report for June was released today. Non-farm jobs and the unemployment rate both grew slightly. Jobs grew by 18,000, which on a base of 131 million jobs, is essentially the same as our forecast of 21,000. The unemployment rate was 9.2 percent, essentially the same as our forecast of 9.15 percent.… Read more