Latest Articles

Has QE3 Started?

I read an article yesterday that claimed that the FED has already initiated QE3, without an announcement.  Today, I had time to check the data.   Here’s a chart from FRED: There has been a recent […]

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Large Scale Mortgage Refinance

In his State of the Union1 speech, President Obama laid out a new program to assist homeowners by enabling mass refinancing to the current very low level of mortgage rates.  The Administration claims that tens […]

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2006 FOMC Transcript

Condensed minutes of FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings are released three weeks after each meeting.  Detailed transcripts for the meetings in a given calendar year are released five years after the end of that […]

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First Principles, by John Taylor

I just finished John Taylor’s new book, First Principles. It’s a very good and fast read. It’s a little over 200 pages, and not a derivative in it. I don’t think there is even an […]

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Jobs False Alarm

Dan already summarized the meat of last Friday’s jobs report, but I wanted to briefly comment on one fairly esoteric point.  The Friday release included an annual “benchmark revision” to the population, labor force and […]

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The January Jobs Report

Today’s BLS jobs-report indicates the economy added 243 thousand jobs in January, which was about 90 thousand jobs above the consensus forecast of 155 thousand. Our forecast was 150,000. This gain was accompanied by a […]

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The Optimal Savings Rate

The US savings rate is really low and has been for some time.  For many years this was explained by the argument that people were getting wealthy through appreciation of their homes and stock portfolios, […]

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Another Silly Idea

Louisiana Congressman Charles Boustany has introduced a bill banning withdrawals of welfare funds from ATMs at liquor stores, casinos, and strip clubs. Politicians do this sort of thing every now and then. It wasn’t that […]

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