Who We Are

CERF is a solutions-oriented organization, providing world-class economic forecasts, analyzing the effects of economic policies, and working with diverse stakeholders to address the major economic challenges of the day.

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what we do

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The Art of Forecasting

When it comes to forecasting, our goal has always been to provide objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state of the art forecasting tools reveal. In this effort, we see our role as one of calling balls and strikes, rather than advocating for a preferred outcome. We also see forecasting as an art and not as a science. Rather than being married to a particular model, we employ a range of forecasting tools and always try to reconcile the output of various models with what we understand from economic theory. We don’t just make predictions, we provide the thinking behind our forecasts, and we try not to be overly influenced by the latest data point.

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Customized Research and Analysis

Businesses, non-profit organizations, and government regularly commission custom economic analyses. The CERF team has produced custom data sets, forecasts, and reports for a variety of applications, including banking, workforce development, agriculture, real estate, information and technology, transportation planning, and government. CERF’s Latino GDP reports, an innovation in economic measurement, are having an impact on the national stage and have been covered widely across print, electronic, and broadcast media.

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Economics in Plain English

We don’t just make predictions, we provide the thinking behind our forecasts. Translating complex data and analysis into language you can understand, the CERF team helps all sectors of business and government stay ahead of the trends that will effect their operations the most.

History of CERF

The Center for Economic Research & Forecasting (CERF) was founded in 2009 by economists Bill Watkins and Dan Hamilton, who ran the Economic Forecast Project at U.C. Santa Barbara until moving to Cal Lutheran. In 2009, CERF joined the National Association for Business Economics NABE Economic Outlook Survey. Less than a year later, Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller invited CERF to be among the original contributors to the Case-Shiller Home Price Expectations Survey. Economist Matthew Fienup joined the CERF team in 2014.

From the time of its founding, CERF has received national recognition for forecast accuracy. In 2016, CERF’s U.S. quarterly GDP forecast won second prize in the NABE Outlook Award. CERF’s U.S. home price forecast won Fannie Mae Crystal Ball Awards in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2024, with multiple top-3 finishes and a top-1 finish.

CERF not only engages in thoughtful policy analysis but actively seeks to shape policy at the regional, state and national levels. CERF was integral to the design and implementation of the first groundwater markets to be implemented in California under the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). During the pandemic, CERF led an ambitious COVID-19 antibody study, which informed Ventura County’s decision to be the first in California to re-open schools for in-person learning. Since 2018, CERF has devoted its expertise in economic measurement to the Latino GDP Project.

CERF analyses have been presented live to tens of thousands of individuals in more than a dozen states, including to both chambers of the California legislature, the Joint Economic Committee of U.S. Congress, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and system-wide events of the U.S. Federal Reserve. CERF initiatives have been the subject of more than a thousand features across print, electronic, and broadcast media, including the Associated Press, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch, Washington Post, Forbes, CNN Money, Fox Business, NBC News, CNBC, Bloomberg, the Hill, LA Times, Univision and Telemundo.