CERF’s U.S. Home Price forecast ranked single most accurate

California Lutheran University economists Matthew Fienup and Dan Hamilton have been named as recipients of a 2024 Crystal Ball Award for the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey (formerly the the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey and the Case-Shiller Home Price Expectations Survey). Fienup and Hamilton, both of Cal Lutheran’s Center for Economic Research & Forecasting (CERF), are receiving the prestigious national forecasting award for the fourth time in six years, after winning three straight awards in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

The CERF team received this year’s honor for their outstanding accuracy. CERF’s 2-year-ahead forecast of 2024 home prices was the single most accurate among more than 100 forecasters in the survey. CERF’s 3-year-ahead forecast was the number 3 most accurate, and their 1-year-ahead forecast was number 5. Other top finishers include forecasting heavyweights Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, Denis Egin of the International Monetary Fund, Susan Wachter of the Wharton School, and Carlos Garriga of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

“CERF has been proud to be a part of the Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations survey since it was launched by Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller in 2010,” Hamilton said. “The survey leverages a large community of professional forecasters to provide forward guidance on home prices, which in turn impact household spending, household and investor psychology, and financial markets.” Originally started by Yale Professor and Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, the organization Pulsenomics surveys a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts each quarter regarding their 5-year expectations for future home prices in the United States.

The Center for Economic Research & Forecasting was founded by economists Bill Watkins and Dan Hamilton in 2009. Hamilton, CERF’s Director of Economics, has worked with economic forecasting models for nearly 25 years. Fienup arrived at CERF in 2014 and took over as Executive Director upon Watkins’ retirement in 2016. Fienup specializes in applied econometrics and economic policy analysis. CERF provides national, state and regional economic forecasts and analysis, used by government, private business and non-profit organizations. CERF is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey and the National Association of Business Economics’ Economic Outlook and Economic Policy Surveys. CERF economists are regularly quoted by business journals and major media, including the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, the Economist Magazine, Forbes, Bloomberg, and CNBC.

“At CERF, our goal is to provide objective, clear-eyed forecasts that reflect what economic theory and state of the art forecasting tools reveal. We see our role as one of calling balls and strikes, rather than advocating for a preferred outcome. Our fourth Crystal Ball award is validation of that approach. It further demonstrates CERF’s outstanding track record of accuracy,” Fienup said. “We are especially proud of this award given the history of the survey and the distinguished list of survey contributors.”