Bill Watkins, Ph.D.
Bill Watkins, Founding Director of CERF, has been providing accurate, unflinching forecasts about the economic pulse of California, western states and the rest of the United States, for more than 15 years. He is a plain-spoken, no-holds-barred economist who studies the data and tells it like it is.
“Bill Watkins has the enviable ability to provide the simple-to-grasp explanations that are based on rigorous analysis of complex things. Sometimes it seems that we within the academy forget that our job is to make things easier to understand, not more difficult.”
Read BioCERF Blog: Posts by Bill Watkins
After the kids went to bed last night, I checked the web to see if there was anything new. The Wall Street Journal posts the next day’s op-eds the evening before print publication. So, I checked those out. I started reading a piece by Judy Shelton provocatively titled The Fed’s Woody Allen Policy. Hey, I… Read more
The Mysterious Effective Demand tweeted and blogged on a paper by University of Arizona Professor Brent T. White. I haven’t read the full paper, but the portion quoted by Effective Demand presents a pretty simple and predictable argument that “Millions of American homeowners are “underwater” on their mortgages – owing more than the value of… Read more
I ran across the “Distress Index” today. It’s put out by the Foundation for Economic Education, an outfit I’ve never heard of before. They even have a nice chart showing how their index has performed over time. I’m not a fan of indices. (Indices is preferred over indexes. Indexes proper usage is as a verb,… Read more
Reuters has a release of new housing data. Seems sales fell in September and Augusts’ numbers were revised down. I’m amazed at the writer’s confidence that we are in “widening recovery.” The money quotes are “The housing data represented a road bump in a recovery that otherwise appears to be widening.” & “With some lingering… Read more
A couple of months ago, on a flight from Los Angeles to New York, I had the opportunity to sit next to an impressive young woman from New Zealand, and we had the type of conversations that occur on long flights. New Zealand was too small for her, and opportunity was limited. So, right after… Read more
By my count, and I could be wrong, 36 Oregon economist signed a letter supporting the Legislature’s tax increases in response to the State’s budget problem. These are the key paragraphs: “ Cutting state spending reduces in-state aggregate demand, virtually dollar-for-dollar. Some forms of state spending, particularly in the area of health care, bring matching… Read more
Joel Kotkin forwarded this article in the Oregon Environmental News. Seems that baby boomers will retire to rural communities in big numbers, for maybe 15 years. This is likely to be particularly important in Central Oregon, and it is a mixed blessing. The baby boomer’s impact on Central Oregon’s economy will persist long after the… Read more
Tim Herdt has a piece today on the politics of legalizing marijuana: “Forget Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner, Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom. It says here that the most interesting political issue in California next June might not be the Republican and Democratic nominations for governor, but possibly a ballot proposition with the following title:… Read more
So true: “Establishing financial stability—in addition to price stability and growth—is the essential role of the central bank. Achieving this goal in a way that avoids moral-hazard distortions, as with the too-big-to-fail finance institutions, and prevents another bubble in the next years will surely be one of the greatest challenges ever faced by the Fed.”… Read more
Dan started this, but he has some minor surgery today. Kirk and Bill finished it: CERF released its first United States and California forecast last week. The United States and California forecasts are pessimistic relative to consensus. Why? In part, it is because so many forecasters seem to be using a model with a high… Read more
