United States third quarter foreclosure rates rose substantially, 23 percent higher than last year, according to RealtyTrac Inc. Almost a million homes received a default, auction notice, or were repossessed by banks in 2009 quarter 3. About one in every 136 U.S. households received a filing, the highest since January 2005. Analysis by the Amherst… Read more

The FED’s response to the last year’s financial collapse has drawn criticism from all fronts. We’ve contributed to the criticism in small ways. In particular, we don’t like the idea of too-big-to-fail and were unhappy when companies were saved from the axe of failure in the marketplace. Bernanke, though, has brought real and valuable innovations… Read more

In November of 2008, we substantially revised our forecast of mid-year 2009 United States year-on-year job growth rate from 0.3 to a fall of about four percent. At the time, we felt like we were in the midst of a regime-shift to a different state of economic affairs. This new state was one characterized by… Read more

Mark Zandi declared “the recession is over” on Tuesday September 1, 2009. All of the economists at CERF would like this to be true. However, we suspect that this is not true. Mark’s declaration was based in part on the ISM manufacturing activity index data release. The economy has benefited from expenditures on vehicles in… Read more

The current economic downturn is a serious one, especially for coastal California counties. Los Angeles County also experienced a serious and prolonged recession in the early 1990s. The early 1990s United States economy experienced a cyclical economic downturn while Los Angeles County also experienced a major downsizing of its aerospace and defense industries. The contraction of… Read more

In November of 2008, we substantially revised our forecast of mid-year 2009 California year-on-year job growth from a fall of about one percent to a fall of about five percent. At the time, we felt like we were in the midst of a regime-shift to a different state of economic affairs. This new state was… Read more

The Employment Development Department’s July 2009 Ventura County jobs report, released Friday, is depressing. From the household survey we see that the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate rose from June’s 10.3 percent to 10.9 percent in July. However, Ventura County’s July seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate usually increases in the summer, due to school closures. Another way… Read more

Most data releases are of seasonally adjusted data, and that is a problem. No one knows what the exact seasonal patterns in the economy are. We estimate them. The new jobs data release is an example of the problem. Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the July employment situation report shows 247 thousand seasonally-… Read more

The Bureau of Economic Activity’s recent release of their initial estimate of the United States second quarter GDP growth implied that the U.S. economy had improved dramatically.  Economic growth was still negative, but it had improved from -6.4 in the 1st quarter to -1.0 percent in the 2nd quarter.  This growth rate is close enough… Read more