CERF Blog
The quality of political debate is really amazing. I’m being called a right-wing extremist because a study we did for the California Manufacturers and Technology Association does not fit the “environmentalist” view. It was just a few months ago that I was being called an ivory-tower liberal for discussing the economic benefits of immigrants and… Read more
The commerce department reported today that United States housing starts fell from 659 thousand to 593 thousand from April to May. This was the largest drop in starts since 1991. As well, building permits, which are an indicator of future starts declined to a one-year low. This is bearish news for the United States economy,… Read more
Last year, Oregon citizens approved large increases on business and consumer income. Now their problem is worse. The Oregon Business Report has a piece today by Patrick Emerson: The Office of Economic Analysis blog has a nice picture that does a good job describing the torpedo the good ship Oregon took to her hull. This… Read more
United States’ May Retail Sales were $362.5 billion, down 1.2 percent from April. The decline was broad based. Motor vehicles, building materials, gasoline, clothing, and general merchandise all fell significantly. Furniture/home furnishings, electronics/appliances, food, health/personal, and sporting goods/hobby were up but just a bit. Building material purchases dove 9.3 percent following an 8.4 percent jump… Read more
The net wealth of United States households and non-profit institutions rose a bit in the first quarter of 2010, the Federal Reserve reported today. This data release shows that net wealth (assets minus liabilities) increased by about a trillion dollars, from $53.5 trillion to $54.5 trillion. From an asset-class point of view this gain was… Read more
Yesterday I argued that student loans should be dischargable in bankruptcy. Given that they are not dischargable, an economist would expect to see insurance available, insurance that would pay the loan if students were incapable of paying it themselves. Since we don’t see the insurance, I assume the reason has to do with asymmetrical information… Read more
Not allowing student loans to be discharged in bankruptcy under any conditions is simply barbaric, just one step away from debtors prisons.
the data gave no reason for a giddy attack
California Trade data continue to reveal a strengthening that initially occurred late last year. First quarter container loadings, inbound plus outbound at Los Angeles and Long Beach Ports, were up 14.6 percent from the prior year. California’s 2010 first-quarter exports were up 44 percent from the prior year, following a 29 percent year-on-year increase in… Read more
Economists agree on relatively few topics when it comes to macroeconomics, but we do have some topics that generate something approaching consensus. One topic of general agreement among economists is immigration. Most economist are convinced that immigration is good. Of course, this is in sharp contrast with popular opinion. So, we need to keep trying… Read more
Alan Auerbach and William Gale have a paper on future deficits coming out in the National Tax Journal September issue. They start with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections, but point out that the CBO projections require that Congress does something it doesn’t do, nothing. In the current context, this means letting the Bush tax… Read more
The May labor market data are mostly disappointing, with 411 of the 431 thousand job gains due to temporary Census 2010 staff increases. The raw data indicate that April SAAR job growth was 2.7 percent and May was 4 percent. If we remove the temporary Census workers from the data, then the revised SAAR growth… Read more
Brian Caplan has a nice little model on employment markets that really does explain a lot of what we see: In equilibrium, nice employers hire the rich, and mean employers hire the poor. It makes sense: Nice employers need rich workers they can trust, and poor workers misbehave unless there’s a mean employer on their… Read more
How are banks doing? We discuss a few measures. We closed 16 banks in May so far, with 73 so far this year according to the FDIC. There were only 36 bank failures through May of 2009. While there were 140 bank failures in 2009, we are on track (based on a simple extrapolation of… Read more
Recent data releases show that Core inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, has been falling rapidly for 4 months now. This is despite recently strong real consumption growth and despite the overall Consumer Price Index holding steady, see chart nearby. Usually, at least in the past ten years, if… Read more
