CERF Blog

California’s April unemployment rate was unchanged from March at 12.6 percent. This was the result of roughly equivalent increases in civilian labor force and employment from March to April. California’s April jobs grew at 1.6 percent, annualized, from March. However, if we remove Agriculture and Government, this growth rate falls to zero percent. California’s April… Read more

Today’s decline in market values, and particularly in the financial sector, has to reflect more than new employment data.  I’m thinking that market participants are coming to see that the risk of at least one  sovereign debt default is higher than previously thought.  A realistic assessment of the risks and potential impacts on the Euro,… Read more

Oregon April non-farm jobs increased 3,900 over March. The April labor market update was posted by the Oregon Employment Department on Tuesday. This is the largest month-on-month increase since October 2007. Using the 3,900 jobs to calculate an annualized growth rate yields 3.0 percent, see the chart below. The 3,900 jobs gained comprised of 2,800… Read more

Today’s report that initial jobless claims unexpectedly “shot up by 25,000 to 471,000 last week” has hit the stock markets hard.  I don’t know why the claim is unexpected or why the stock market reacted so strongly. Volatility is to be expected in a slow recovery, and that’s what we and many other forecasters have… Read more

The debate over the repeal of California’s global-warming regulation, AB32, has degenerated into a shouting match, each side claiming economic ruin if the other side wins. A couple of long-dead French economists can help us think about the debate. The great French economist Leon Walras (1834-1910) showed that perfect markets result in an allocation of… Read more

Tonight I’ll be speaking to a group working on saving the Ventura River. The river once had a very large steelhead run, and I’m told a salmon run. Today, it is home to the homeless. I would love to see the river restored to a more pristine state, and I would love to have steelhead… Read more

Recent data from the American Association of Railroads on United States and Canadian Railroad Traffic shows gains in April measured on a year-on-year basis. United States April rail carloads were up 15.8 percent from April 2009 and Canadian April rail carloads were up 26.7 percent from April 2009. While the carload levels are still nowhere… Read more

People who follow me know that I think little of Paul Krugman as a person.  He was a brilliant economist, one who changed the way economists thinks about international economics, and his Nobel Prize was well deserved.  That was a long time ago. He then provided a service to all of us by writing books… Read more

The question has merit, but I came to it by a roundabout process. I was thinking about how our savings rate is low and falling. After all, we have lots of reasons to save: We’ve lost huge amounts of wealth over the past couple of years, and many people, especially Baby Boomers anticipating retirement, are… Read more

Europe has created a $1 trillion bailout fund. The United States Federal Reserve Bank has apparently agreed to unlimited currency swaps to support the bailout effort. By comparison, Freddie Mac’s request for another $8.4 billion looks pretty small, but they are all symptoms of the same disease. Let’s call the disease bailoutitis. It is not… Read more

April non-farm jobs rose by 290 thousand, greater than the consensus estimate of 200 thousand. This was an improvement over 230 thousand in March and 39 thousand in February, which were revised up from original press releases. At this rate of job improvement, year-on-year job growth will become positive in July, a welcome event indeed.… Read more

Recent data releases show that inflation remains well contained. In fact, by one key measure, inflation is at a historical low, causing increasing concern about deflation. From the March Consumer Price Index press release we see that first quarter overall price levels have grown about 2.3 percent from 2009 quarter 1. This measure includes energy… Read more

United States Gross Domestic Product expanded at a 3.2 percent pace in quarter one of 2010, according to the preliminary estimate released today. This was very close to our forecast of 3.1 percent. This expansion was the result of 3.6% growth in personal consumption expenditures and a $50 billion increase in real private inventory spending,… Read more

The current VC Reporter has a great article on two competing downtown Ventura projects. The proposals are for Ventura’s iconic intersection at California and Main, and each would be a huge innovation for the City. The smaller proposal is for a $19 million mixed use project with 29 residential units priced from $400,000 to $850,000.… Read more

When thinking about regulation, it is helpful to have some regulatory principles. Here are my proposals: Keep it simple. Simple regulation is cost-effective regulation. Simple regulation minimizes both regulatory costs to the government and compliance costs to the regulated firms, costs eventually borne by consumers or taxpayers. Complicated regulation invites lawsuits and encourages efforts to… Read more