CERF Blog

The December California jobs report, out today, shows that the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate held steady from November at 12.4 percent. The year-on-year job declines subsided from November’s -4.2 percent to -3.9 percent in December. The annualized month-on-month job decline, which is very volatile, worsened from -1.5 percent in November to -3.2 percent in December. Almost two-thirds… Read more

Today’s Oregon jobs report for December shows mixed results in the State’s job market.  The OES’s Labor Market Information System provided the December estimates for the state this morning and will provide them for Oregon’s counties on Friday morning.  The State’s Year-over-year job losses are improving a bit, from a loss of about five percent… Read more

Today’s data releases highlight the challenges facing those who claim we are in a recovery. The December retail sales volume, down 0.3 percent from November, was perhaps the most shocking number to the optimists out there. This was almost a full percentage point below “consensus expectations,” which were for 0.5 percent growth. So much for… Read more

Our governor wants a constitutional amendment to require that 10 percent of state revenues go to higher education. This sounds good, but it really is bad policy in several ways: One of our current problems is that there are so many spending mandates in California that our policy makers have very limited freedom to respond… Read more

This morning’s December employment situation report showed certain signs of improvement that do indicate a positive trend. However, the fourth quarter of 2009 ended down, consistent with our forecast. The November jobs number was revised to show a month-on-month gain of jobs. The December jobs number was down 0.8 percent from November and down three… Read more

I ran across this Robert Scheer piece in The Nation. Sheer laments the fact that the Obama administration seems determined to not bring back the Glass-Steagall Act, while McCain is trying to reinstate the regulation. Apparently, Larry Summers supported the repeal of the Glass-Steagall when he was with the Clinton administration. Scheer believes that Summers… Read more

Los Angeles County’s November jobs report showed a moderating unemployment rate of 12.2 percent, down from 12.5 percent in October, due to a decline in the labor force. Payroll job declines improved from 3.8 percent lower than last year in October to 3.5 percent lower than last year in November. The sectors that are getting… Read more

The FED has announced the end of its Treasury issue purchase program. Market commentators are speculating that bond rates will rise, potentially delaying or stifling economic recovery. I am not so sure. While it will be true that the FED-demand-factor will go away there are other factors that influence interest rates. Another important factor that… Read more

The November California jobs report showed the unemployment rate subsiding a bit from 12.5 percent in October to 12.3 percent, the result of a declining workforce and not a result of new jobs. The year-on-year job growth comparison showed that non-farm job level was 4.2 percent less than last November, better than the 4.6 percent… Read more

There has been a fair amount of chatter lately saying that the Feds are keeping banks from lending. The story goes something like this: Banks can borrow from the Fed at rates near zero. Then, they can purchase Treasuries for about three percent. Voila, banks have a three percent risk-free return, and no incentive to… Read more

Many economists declared the recession over after the third-quarter GDP release. We at CERF disagreed and pointed out that almost every long recession has had at least one quarter of positive growth during the recession. We also pointed out that many of the reasons for the relatively strong third quarter were temporary. We just didn’t… Read more

Joel Kotkin sent me this link to a Union Tribune editorial. As Arnold would say, it’s fantastic. When asked about the possibility of suspending AB 32 during bad economic times, Arnold asserts that AB 32 is helping economic Growth. Here’s the money quote: “Your question is premised on an unproven assertion that implementation of AB… Read more

The United States employment situation improved substantially in November.  The unemployment rate fell a bit and quarter-on-quarter job losses slowed dramatically, almost to zero.  This welcome news has been greeted with rises in equities and a fall in Treasury bonds.  I have attached four charts below. Are we out of the woods?  No.  Is this… Read more

The October California jobs report was released November 20. The statewide unemployment rate increased from 12.3 in September to 12.5 percent in October. We are encouraged by the slight uptick in payroll job counts in October. However, there are still 4.6 percent fewer jobs than a year ago and 6.3 percent fewer than two years… Read more

I had to pause when I read George Melloan’s Wall Street Journal piece today. Seems he sees a conspiracy between Treasury and the Federal Reserve to fund the national deficit with bank funds to the detriment of business and economic growth. In Melloan’s world, the co-conspirators do this by regulation, giving banks little choice but… Read more