Previously Published in CERF’s September California Economic Forecast There are no surprises in our California forecast.  There aren’t any changes either.  We expect California to continue plugging along as it has for several years now.  The growth on average will be slow, but the Bay Area will do better. We don’t see much upside potential. … Read more

Previously published in CERF’s September 2016 Economic Forecast publication: I have complained for years that California’s economy is not performing as it should, and it’s not working for a large part of the population, young people, minorities, less educated workers, even much of the middle class.  Those who disagree with me point out that, measured… Read more

Previously published on October 29, 2015 on Newgeography.com   California has a long history of boom and bust cycles, but over the past 25 years or so, California’s cycles appear to be becoming more volatile, with increasing frequency, higher highs, and lower lows.  The fast-moving business cycle may not provide the time necessary for many… Read more

Previously published on September 2, 2015 on Fox and Hounds As California weathers its fourth straight year of extreme drought, policy makers and their cheerleaders continue to scapegoat California’s agricultural industry. Writing in the Sacramento Bee, economist Christopher Thornberg, for example, refers to the industry as “feckless” and advocates using eminent domain to seize farmers’… Read more

“It’s no longer legal to say, ‘We don’t want African-Americans to live here,’ but you can say, ‘I’m going to make sure no one who makes less than two times the median income lives here,’” Jargowsky told me. The above quote is from an Atlantic article on the resurrection of American slums.  I recommend the… Read more

California’s water regulatory environment is a mess.  One result is that it’s expensive and often arbitrary.  It’s expensive to support, but that’s the not biggest cost.  The real loss is in the efficient use of water. Since allocation in California is increasingly a political process, there is no reason to believe it’s economically efficient.  Indeed,… Read more

The California Center for Jobs and the Economy has released a report comparing Los Angeles County’s economy with the Bay Area’s growth.  Needless to say, Los Angeles doesn’t look good in the comparisons. Early on, they not that Los Angeles’ economy has been almost unique in not creating jobs: In their March 2014 report, UCLA… Read more

The folks at Chapman University have produced an important new paper.  We’ve said for a long time that reducing California’s Carbon Emissions is both expensive and futile, if the goal is to reduce global atmospheric carbon.  Here’s what the report has to say: This paper demonstrates that even the complete elimination of state GHG emissions will have no… Read more

Previously published on July 11, 2014 on NewGeography.com Part two of a two-part report. Read part 1. The problem with analyzing California’s economy — or with assessing its vigor — is that there is not one California economy. Instead, we have a group of regions that will see completely different economic outcomes. Then, those outcomes… Read more

Previously published on July 10, 2014 on NewGeography.com Part one of a two-part report. California is a place of extremes. It has beaches, mountains, valleys and deserts. It has glaciers and, just a few miles away, hot, dry deserts. Some years it doesn’t rain. Some years it rains all winter. Those extremes are part of… Read more