Forbes recently ran an article by William Baldwin titled “Do You Live in a Death Spiral State?” In the article, Baldwin calls states with declining economies Death Spiral States. (Confession: I really wish I’d come up that term) He correctly included California among his Death Spiral States. Then, he gives investment advice based only on… Read more

The advance estimate of U.S. third quarter GDP was released this morning, indicating that the economy grew at 2 percent. Third quarter growth was driven by private consumption and government defense consumption. Investment expenditures were weak, and trade was a small drag on third quarter growth. Business investment expenditures actually contracted, while residential real estate… Read more

This from a CNNMoney article: NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — The International Monetary Fund said Monday that the global economy should continue to limp along at a modest pace, assuming leaders in Europe and the United States do not make things worse. In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF said it expects… Read more

I recently had a piece on immigration a San Diego’s Union Tribune.  It is about how an increase in legal immigration could be an economic spark, and I thought I was the only one thinking about the topic. Turns out I was wrong. There’s an outfit called the Partnership for a New American Economy, and… Read more

Veronique De Rugy at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center has a nice piece Debt Grows at a Faster Rate Than Economy for Foreseeable Future. My working definition of sustainability: when something is growing slower than the economy, it is sustainable.  Usually, we’re talking about prices, but debt works too. Something will have to change.

I just finished John Taylor’s new book, First Principles. It’s a very good and fast read. It’s a little over 200 pages, and not a derivative in it. I don’t think there is even an explicit formula in it. Taylor writes very well, especially for an academic economist. Maybe that is from all his years… Read more

This morning’s much anticipated fourth quarter GDP release provides a preliminary estimate of real GDP growth of 2.8 percent. To be fair, perhaps the anticipation is experienced mostly by forecasting economists and financial market watchers. I am always particularly interested in fourth quarter as it closes out the year and in this case I forecasted… Read more

The initial estimate of United States third quarter GDP was released today. The economy grew at 2.5 percent, driven mostly by consumption growth of 2.4 percent and investment in equipment & software of 17.4 percent. Growth was slightly augmented by investment in structures and the improvement in net exports. The government sector’s impact on GDP was… Read more

Today’s jobs data release was below our forecast, and that is bad. It is even worse, when one considers the productivity data released earlier in the week. That report showed that productivity has fallen in each of the past three consecutive quarters. This is the most sustained decline since 1979. Productivity used to have a… Read more

We’ve seen more and more forecasters and analysts revising their forecast down. In fact, after being among the lowest for years, we’re now almost consensus. Remember, they came to us. Downward revisions to United States gross domestic product (GDP) have driven most of the revisions. For about two years, we had trouble with the original… Read more