I get the following question, or something like it all the time.  This time it came by e-mail.  I thought I’d post my response.  Here’s the question: When looking at the economy, unemployment, and job growth…..what consideration is given to the impact of the decline of jobs and/or elimination of jobs in the public sector… Read more

Mankiw has a post on the administration’s proposed changes in the tax treatment of investment.  As usual, he is right on.  The proposed treatment amounts to a zero interest loan, at a time when interest rates are already remarkably close to zero: However, the impact will be relatively modest. Notice that expensing merely accelerates deductions.… Read more

Yesterday, the Los Angeles Times had an article on the decline of illegal immigration into the United States. It is unpopular to say this, but this is bad. There is lots of evidence that immigrants, including illegal immigrants, are a net positive to the economy. Here is a recent and typical research piece from the… Read more

It’s not everyday that Greg Mankiw and Paul Krugman agree.  When they do, it’s worth thinking about.  Here are their blog posts: Krugman & Mankiw. The topic is a Taylor Rule, which is a method, proposed John Taylor, for determining what Fed Policy should be.  That is, what is the interest rate that the Fed… Read more

Every morning I have this little battle with myself.  Will I listen to music, news, or business news?  I know I should do one of the latter two, but I really like music.  Mostly, I’m weak.  I listen to music.  Today though, I listened to the business news, and now I’m sorry I did. Some… Read more

Finally, people are starting to see the problem with the United States economy.  This piece is typical.  For over a year now, we have been warning that the United States could be facing a long period of slow economic growth, similar to what Japan has seen for the past couple of decades. Seeing a problem… Read more

Bloomberg has a report on an IMF study.  Here is the key sentence: “The U.S. financial system remains fragile and banks subjected to additional economic stress might need as much as $76 billion in capital, according to the results of International Monetary Fund stress tests.” We at CERF have been long concerned about the strength… Read more

I just read paper The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks by Christina Romer and David Romer. It’s in the June 2010 issue of The American Economic Review (AER), the industry’s top peer-reviewed journal. Being in the AER is a guarantee that the paper is rigorous and… Read more

DJ is one of my dearest friends.  He was one of the first people to befriend me when I moved to a new city as a high-school junior.  He was there for the debriefs after high-school dates, and I was there for his.  He was there for an awful lot of firsts, none of which… Read more

The National Venture Capital Association issued a couple of reports recently.  One is on venture capital fund raising.  The other is a report on a survey of venture capital professionals.  Each of them make for ugly reading, if you would like to see a robust recovery and dynamic economy. Here are a few key findings:… Read more