Dan Hamilton & Sean Liu As expected, China’s 2013 second quarter economic growth slowed, recording 7.6 percent compared with 7.7 percent in quarter 1. This data was released July 15th. This is a real growth rate that is a comparison with the same quarter in the prior year. China’s government provides a production-side breakdown of… Read more

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their annual comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts on Wednesday, July 31. Most of the Financial news websites focused primarily on the first estimate of the second quarter of 2013, which was that economic growth was 1.7 percent. The analysis that was presented was… Read more

In a prior blog I have discussed the components of building a sustainable financial plan.  There were two key steps:  first, take into account your “human capital” which is the present value of your estimated future income stream.  Your total wealth is the sum of this human capital and your net financial capital (assets less… Read more

How much debt is it reasonable for individuals to undertake?  I propose two criteria for answering this question.  First, you must be able to service the debt.  Second, the debt should be “productive” in the sense that the benefits of the activity being financed are greater than the cost of the debt.  These criteria can… Read more

When I worked for the Fed, there were televisions in our building’s gym, and they were always tuned to a financial channel. We joked about how the talking heads had an explanation for every market move. Then one day, someone told the truth. He said something along the lines of “we don’t know why the… Read more

Mistakes In 2012, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke1 gave a speech on the importance of financial education.  People commonly make financial mistakes such as saving too little, taking on too much debt, holding too little life insurance, making bad investment decisions and paying excessive fees that are unnecessary.  The consequences of these mistakes can be… Read more

Previously Published in the Orange County Register on May 20. The headline read, “USC steals 2 star brain researchers from UCLA.” But there is much more to the story than what was in the article, which presented the event as a coup in a simple cross-town rivalry between two great universities. The real story is… Read more

One of the lessons that many people have taken from the financial crisis is that there was too much debt and leverage and too little equity capital.  Capital serves as a buffer against loss.  If this buffer is inadequate, the probability of financial failure is high.  During an economic boom, borrowers are eager to take… Read more

Previously published in the Orange County Register Over the past few months I’ve been privileged to hear two members of California’s Black Caucus speak, and I’ve been mightily impressed. Last fall, Sen. Roderick Wright (D-Inglewood) gave two presentations to a Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) economic summit. He painted a portrait of California’s industrial… Read more

Gordon Pye was a finance professor at UC Berkeley in the 1970s.  Then he became Chief Economist at a bank in New York City.  After ten years or so, the bank was acquired by another bank that already had a Chief Economist.  So Professor Pye took early retirement and began to contemplate the appropriate rule… Read more