The 2009 state-by-state real GDP growth rate estimates were released by the BEA this morning. Given that 2009 was a pivotal year in the Great Recession, we saw lots of variability. There were 38 state economies that experienced contractions, most led by the construction and durables goods manufacturing sectors. The average across all 50 states… Read more

The BLS provided the October Consumer Price Index release today.  The October core CPI year-on-year growth was 0.6 percent.  This is the lowest growth of this measure since 1957.  This rate of growth is low enough that the Fed is concerned that price growth is too low.  In an economy characterized by weak demand, weak… Read more

Despite positive United States economic growth since the third quarter of 2009, job growth continues to be weak, indeed negative until recently. Separately, I have argued that the Fed should be patient and wait for households to rebuild their balance sheets, a process that will take quite some time to complete, and probably can’t be… Read more

Dan, my favorite workaholic, sent the following from China and asked that I post it: Dan Hamilton October 28, 2010 The first estimate of United States third quarter Gross Domestic Product came out today. The preliminary estimate of third quarter real GDP growth was 2.0 percent, which follows a 1.7 percent growth rate during the… Read more

United States non-farm jobs fell by 95,000 jobs in September driven by a 159,000 loss of government jobs that was offset by a 64,000 gain in private sector payroll jobs. The government job losses resulted from Census cutbacks and continued local government sector declines. Non-farm job growth has been negative for four months now, i.e.… Read more

Molly Clancy & Dan Hamilton In July we discussed the topic of Multiple-Equilibria in the United States economy. This blog is an update to that post, which can be found here. We argued there that the United States is currently in a “good-deflation” equilibrium, where consumers and producers find low price growth as helpful in… Read more

Modern economic theory has come to think of important macro-economic events as caused by shocks. The types of shocks are usually organized into four broad categories: supply shocks, demand shocks, policy shocks, and bubbles/debt shocks. United States examples of very large shocks include the recession of 1974, (a supply shock), the Great Depression, the 1981… Read more

California’s unemployment rate edged up from 12.3 in July to 12.4 percent in August, the Employment Development Department reported today. This was driven more by changes in jobs, (losses), rather than changes in labor force. California’s unemployment rate is third highest in the nation behind Michigan and Nevada. California’s month-on-month non-farm job growth rate worsened… Read more

The Fed’s national wealth report for the second quarter is out today. For a New-Classical Macroeconomist, this is one of the most important data releases. Wealth is one of the most important theoretical drivers of consumption, and it is one of the drivers in our forecast model of the United States economy. National wealth, i.e.… Read more

Last night we had a faculty meeting.  One of the issues that came up was parking congestion.  The University is growing, and this year there have been some problems finding parking spots. More parking was suggested, but the number of parking spaces isn’t the problem.  The problem is that the University gives parking permits for… Read more