A brief update of a blog of about a month ago regarding banking: The FDIC reports that 83 banks have been closed so far this year. While there were 140 bank failures in 2009, we are on track (based on a simple extrapolation of current trends) to experience at least 160 bank failures in 2010.… Read more

The commerce department reported today that United States housing starts fell from 659 thousand to 593 thousand from April to May. This was the largest drop in starts since 1991. As well, building permits, which are an indicator of future starts declined to a one-year low. This is bearish news for the United States economy,… Read more

United States’ May Retail Sales were $362.5 billion, down 1.2 percent from April. The decline was broad based. Motor vehicles, building materials, gasoline, clothing, and general merchandise all fell significantly. Furniture/home furnishings, electronics/appliances, food, health/personal, and sporting goods/hobby were up but just a bit. Building material purchases dove 9.3 percent following an 8.4 percent jump… Read more

The net wealth of United States households and non-profit institutions rose a bit in the first quarter of 2010, the Federal Reserve reported today. This data release shows that net wealth (assets minus liabilities) increased by about a trillion dollars, from $53.5 trillion to $54.5 trillion. From an asset-class point of view this gain was… Read more

the data gave no reason for a giddy attack

California Trade data continue to reveal a strengthening that initially occurred late last year.  First quarter container loadings, inbound plus outbound at Los Angeles and Long Beach Ports, were up 14.6 percent from the prior year. California’s 2010 first-quarter exports were up 44 percent from the prior year, following a 29 percent year-on-year increase in… Read more

The May labor market data are mostly disappointing, with 411 of the 431 thousand job gains due to temporary Census 2010 staff increases. The raw data indicate that April SAAR job growth was 2.7 percent and May was 4 percent. If we remove the temporary Census workers from the data, then the revised SAAR growth… Read more

How are banks doing? We discuss a few measures. We closed 16 banks in May so far, with 73 so far this year according to the FDIC. There were only 36 bank failures through May of 2009. While there were 140 bank failures in 2009, we are on track (based on a simple extrapolation of… Read more

Recent data releases show that Core inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, has been falling rapidly for 4 months now. This is despite recently strong real consumption growth and despite the overall Consumer Price Index holding steady, see chart nearby. Usually, at least in the past ten years, if… Read more

California’s April unemployment rate was unchanged from March at 12.6 percent. This was the result of roughly equivalent increases in civilian labor force and employment from March to April. California’s April jobs grew at 1.6 percent, annualized, from March. However, if we remove Agriculture and Government, this growth rate falls to zero percent. California’s April… Read more