This is a short note about our forecast of the April labor market.  The data comes out this Friday, May 6. Our labor market forecast is improving, slowly. Both February and March nonfarm payrolls increased by about 200 thousand, and we are tentatively confident that about 180 thousand can occur in April. This forecast reflects… Read more

Previously Published March 22, 2011 Forecasting is a challenge in rapidly changing times, and these are very rapidly changing times. At the beginning of the year, it would have been unbelievable if someone had said that Mubarak would be deposed, we would be in a war in Libya, and there would be general uprisings throughout… Read more

Previously published in the California Economic Forecast, March 24, 2011 If you are looking for a summary statistic on the United States economy, I recommend you consider bank charge-offs. These are the loans that banks have written off their books, because the probability of collecting them is so low. It doesn’t mean that the borrowers… Read more

Finally, people are starting to see the problem with the United States economy.  This piece is typical.  For over a year now, we have been warning that the United States could be facing a long period of slow economic growth, similar to what Japan has seen for the past couple of decades. Seeing a problem… Read more

DJ is one of my dearest friends.  He was one of the first people to befriend me when I moved to a new city as a high-school junior.  He was there for the debriefs after high-school dates, and I was there for his.  He was there for an awful lot of firsts, none of which… Read more

Famous economist Arthur Laffer has a piece in the Wall Street Journal today where he argues two points: unemployment insurance causes unemployment even in bad times and unemployment insurance is not stimulus. I’ll stipulate his second point, but his first point is all wrong. The data make it pretty clear that unemployment insurance increases unemployment… Read more

Yesterday I argued that student loans should be dischargable in bankruptcy.  Given that they are not dischargable, an economist would expect to see insurance available, insurance that would pay the loan if students were incapable of paying it themselves. Since we don’t see the insurance, I assume the reason has to do with asymmetrical information… Read more

Not allowing student loans to be discharged in bankruptcy under any conditions is simply barbaric, just one step away from debtors prisons.

Economists agree on relatively few topics when it comes to macroeconomics, but we do have some topics that generate something approaching consensus.  One topic of general agreement among economists is immigration.  Most economist are convinced that immigration is good.  Of course, this is in sharp contrast with popular opinion.  So, we need to keep trying… Read more

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and Larry Summers are having a heated exchange over the impacts of unemployment insurance on jobs, and they are both being stupid. The WSJ claims that extending unemployment insurance is causing unemployment, and that their opinion is consistent with Summers’ past statements. Unemployment insurance can exacerbate unemployment in times of… Read more