Goodhart's Law and Monetary Policy
Goodhart’s Law (named after economist Charles Goodhart) says that once an observed empirical relationship begins to be relied upon, it will no longer work. This law, or a variant, comes up in a lot of […]
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Goodhart’s Law (named after economist Charles Goodhart) says that once an observed empirical relationship begins to be relied upon, it will no longer work. This law, or a variant, comes up in a lot of […]
Read moreI’m often asked about how regional forecasts are constructed. The fact is that different outfits construct regional forecasts differently. At the lowest level of rigor, a forecaster may just discuss broad trends, perhaps referring to […]
Read moreThe No Child Left Behind Act became law in 2002. Among other things, it required standardized testing of students, beginning in 2003. The scores are used to evaluate the quality of the schools. It sounds […]
Read moreThe Taylor Rule The Taylor Rule relates the target federal funds rate with the gap between actual and target inflation and between actual and capacity output. The higher is inflation or the lower is the […]
Read moreI don’t think I’ve ever watched a compete 35 minute internet video. I haven’t been to a movie for well over a decade and probably less than 10 times over the 40 years I’ve been […]
Read moreA few days ago, I attended a presentation on by David Flaks. David is the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation’s (LAEDC) Chief Operating Officer, and he was discussing LAEDC’s new LA County Strategic Plan. A […]
Read moreGlobal population is estimated to reach 7 billion this year. The United Nations is projecting that global population may reach 15 billion by the end of the century. This projection is based on population growth […]
Read moreToday’s jobs report indicates our labor markets remain in the doldrums. The unemployment rate fell slightly from 9.2 percent in September to 9.1 percent in October, but jobs increased by only 80,000. The 80 thousand […]
Read moreThe initial estimate of United States third quarter GDP was released today. The economy grew at 2.5 percent, driven mostly by consumption growth of 2.4 percent and investment in equipment & software of 17.4 percent. Growth […]
Read more“Value at Risk is like an air bag that works well all the time except when you have an accident” David Einhorn Value at Risk (VaR) is a well-accepted measure of market risk. It is […]
Read moreThe October 29, 2009 issue of Time Magazine had an article titled “Why California is America’s Future.” I sure hope not. California is fast becoming a post-industrial hell for almost everyone except the gentry class, […]
Read moreThomas Sargent and Christopher Sims were awarded the Nobel Price in Economics today. When Robert Lucas won the Nobel Prize in 1995 I wondered if Professor Sargent and Professor Sims could win the prize. Certainly, […]
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