Housing bottom? Not yet.
Weakness in housing activity and housing prices continues to be a major drag on the overall economy. My colleagues at CERF have long maintained that the homeownership rate (HOR) needs to fall back to its […]
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Weakness in housing activity and housing prices continues to be a major drag on the overall economy. My colleagues at CERF have long maintained that the homeownership rate (HOR) needs to fall back to its […]
Read morePreviously published September 28 in the “California Economic Forecast”: The saga of the Great Recession continues. Over six million people have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks, and job growth may be slow enough […]
Read moreIn the 1960s, the Federal Reserve attempted to conduct an operation to lower longer term yields and raise short-term yields. This maneuver was called “Operation Twist” and the purpose was to stimulate private sector borrowing […]
Read moreEurope has been in the news a lot lately. One day it has a plan to, temporarily at least, deal with the debt problems of delinquent members, and markets climb. The next day there is […]
Read moreInterest rate spreads are returning to higher levels, levels that indicate financial and economic instability. This could indicate that an economic regime shift may occur this year. The normalized TED, which is the 3 month LIBOR […]
Read moreIn a widely read NYT editorial, famous investor Warren Buffett has proposed tax increases for the rich, like himself. Although one of the richest men in the world, Mr. Buffett claims that he pays a […]
Read moreA bank’s capital ratio is a ratio in which the numerator is a measure of capital (like common equity) and the denominator is a measure of assets (usually risk-weighted assets). Bank executives sometimes take the […]
Read moreIn a newsletter about three months ago, I acknowledged some improving economic conditions in Oregon, but counseled that it was no time to become complacent. That turns out to have been right on. Since then, […]
Read moreToday’s jobs data release was below our forecast, and that is bad. It is even worse, when one considers the productivity data released earlier in the week. That report showed that productivity has fallen in […]
Read moreThe power of faith is always impressive, and few demonstrate more faith than those who truly believe that California’s economy will always recover boundless economic prosperity regardless of policy. The true believers’ faith persists in […]
Read moreWe’ve seen more and more forecasters and analysts revising their forecast down. In fact, after being among the lowest for years, we’re now almost consensus. Remember, they came to us. Downward revisions to United States […]
Read moreJeff Speakes Volatility in financial markets has jumped sharply in recent weeks, thanks to the U.S. debt ceiling debate and ongoing financial crisis in Europe. For most investors this has been a period of great […]
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