Latest Articles

United States Household Wealth

The Federal Reserve released its third quarter Flow of Funds report, which includes measures of debt accumulation and household sector wealth. This data is fundamental to the applied New Classical macroeconomist as wealth is believed […]

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OK, How About This

People who know me know that I’m a big supporter of increased immigration.  A surge of new educated immigrants would create an economic boom, solve our housing issues, and reinvigorate our cities.  Actually, I’d go […]

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Jobs, Labor Productivity, and Our Forecast

The Labor Department’s jobs report for November indicates that job growth has slowed and unemployment has risen from October. We had forecasted a gain of 50 thousand jobs and a steady unemployment rate. The actuals […]

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The Second Estimate of 2010 Quarter 3 U.S. GDP

The BEA’s second estimate of United States third quarter economic growth was released this morning. The revision from the first estimate of 2.0 percent growth was an increase of half a percent to 2.5 percent […]

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Correct, for the Wrong Reasons

Daryl G. Jones has a piece in Fortune titled Why the housing bulls are wrong.  He’s correct about the housing bulls being wrong, but his reasons aren’t all that convincing to me.  Here’s the reason housing […]

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States GDP

The 2009 state-by-state real GDP growth rate estimates were released by the BEA this morning. Given that 2009 was a pivotal year in the Great Recession, we saw lots of variability. There were 38 state […]

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Deflation, Equilibria, and QE2

The BLS provided the October Consumer Price Index release today.  The October core CPI year-on-year growth was 0.6 percent.  This is the lowest growth of this measure since 1957.  This rate of growth is low […]

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A Coordinated Economic Stimulus Policy for the U.S.

Despite positive United States economic growth since the third quarter of 2009, job growth continues to be weak, indeed negative until recently. Separately, I have argued that the Fed should be patient and wait for […]

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Yeah Right

Let’s see: The President wants to double exports in five years.* The Treasury is the appropriate department to create and implement a plan to double exports. Tim Geithner runs the Treasury. Tim Geithner denies deliberately […]

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China Must Have a Larger Economy than the United States

People are getting excited because China’s economy is expected to soon exceed the United States economy in size.   They seem to think this is bad.  Here’s an example.  This is really a stupid thing to […]

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United States GDP

Dan, my favorite workaholic, sent the following from China and asked that I post it: Dan Hamilton October 28, 2010 The first estimate of United States third quarter Gross Domestic Product came out today. The […]

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What to Do?

I’ll be giving a talk at the Valley Industry and Commerce Association (VICA) Business Forecast Conference on October 28 at the Warner Center Marriott in Woodland Hills California.  James Paulsen of Wells Capital Management and […]

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