The April Jobs Forecast
This is a short note about our forecast of the April labor market. The data comes out this Friday, May 6. Our labor market forecast is improving, slowly. Both February and March nonfarm payrolls increased […]
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This is a short note about our forecast of the April labor market. The data comes out this Friday, May 6. Our labor market forecast is improving, slowly. Both February and March nonfarm payrolls increased […]
Read moreA remarkable thing happened today. For the first time in two years the estimate of United States economic growth was lower than our forecast. Despite weak fundamentals, U.S. GDP growth had been more rapid than […]
Read morePreviously Published March 22, 2011 Forecasting is a challenge in rapidly changing times, and these are very rapidly changing times. At the beginning of the year, it would have been unbelievable if someone had said […]
Read moreHere are two facts about China: Real estate values declined 27 Percent last month. Inflation is increasing. Their economic growth has slowed a bit, but it is still really high at 9.7, at least by […]
Read moreIt is time to write about inflation. From fall of 2008 until about a month ago I was more concerned about deflation than inflation. In my post last fall, I characterized the United States economy […]
Read morePreviously published March 22, 2011 in the California Economic Forecast I mentioned in the United States Highlights essay that the fourth quarter consumption growth rate of 4.1 percent, the strongest in five years, was a […]
Read morePreviously published March 22, 2011 It appears that California residential real estate is in the second dip of a double-dip decline. California home prices, and sales, crashed at the beginning of the recession. Then, last […]
Read morePreviously published March 22, 2011 California remains mired in something like a zombie state, not quite dead, but certainly not vigorous, moving but with no clear direction. Perhaps, jobs and migration data best show California […]
Read morePreviously published March 21, 2011 The Recent Evidence The United States economy continues to surprise me. Fourth quarter real consumption growth of over four percent, the fastest growth rate in five years, seems anomalous in […]
Read morePreviously Published March 17, 2011, in the California Economic Forecast A couple of weeks ago, somebody–I think it was Shiller–said that they expected residential real estate price to decline by another 20 percent or more. […]
Read morePreviously published in the California Economic Forecast, March 24, 2011 If you are looking for a summary statistic on the United States economy, I recommend you consider bank charge-offs. These are the loans that banks […]
Read moreLast year about this time there was all sorts of talk about green shoots and economic recovery. We were vocal in cautioning that the shoots were ephemeral and would evaporate with the end of incentive […]
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